Using NinjaTrader To Test Bulls*** Systems That The “Gurus” Claim Are The Holy Grail To Success

by Mark Williams on February 12, 2009

So, we have created our Triple Moving Average System in Ninjatrader. Now, Let’s test something.

To bring up the strategy, we are going to File -> New -> Strategy Analyzer.

I have already imported Currency Data from a Provider. It may have cost me money, but is was better to spend $200 bucks on it, than LOSE THOUSANDS later.

By the way, if you do trade Forex, and are using Ninjatrader, you can get free data by connecting to GAIN (Forex.com), or if your broker is either Interactive Brokers or MB Trading. You can also get 100% FREE end-of-day from the Yahoo Finance feed…

Strategy Analyzer

What I am going to do is test a system that I have found in a book that purchased a few weeks ago. The author called this system the annivesary trade.

What is involved were these three moving exponential moving average: 4EMA, 16EMA, and the 60 EMA.

He said that he used this, as well as a few other systems to make “bookoo dollars”, so I put his claim to the test on thiss particular one.

A simple 3 exponential moving average, fast average greater than the medium average greater than the slow average.

In this case, I am testing the Great Britian Pound vs. the Japanese Yen, the author’s “bread and butter”. He uses 60 mins bars. The reason my default quantity is set to 100000 is to simulate purchasing 1 lot of the GBP/JPY pair (1 standard lot means that you are selling 100000 GBP and buy 100000 Yen).

Setting up for testing strategy

I have tested this strategy over a ten year period. The more test that are done, and the longer the time periods used — i.e. the larger the sample size, the more realiable the data.

So, how did this strategy work over this time sample period.

Well…

Ummm....WOWUmmm…WOW…

Now, if someone wanted to become a Guru on their own, they could just create a system, optimize it for a time period, and then sell it on  eBay or some other place saying that it made x thousands of $, in which some unsuspecting person buys it, and loses their ass. 

Dont, worry though, I will show you how to prevent that from happening 🙂

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{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }

1 DanielNo Gravatar 05.05.11 at 5:17 am

Interesting, I’ve learned alot of strategies like this but never tested any of them, I always trust that they are telling the truth, but what you say makes sense. Personally, I’ve always gone by the mantra that if I found a system that worked, I wouldn’t share it with anyone because once everyone starts using it, it stops working.

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